There are two things we need to do in order to achieve our ambitions: create a space to reason and then use that space to think clearly
Decisions made during ordinary times actually matters more to your success than decisions made during “big moments”
We often mess up small moments that can compound and cause bigger problems. Eg. you may marry the best person but taking them for granted and not respecting them will lead to bigger problems
We often let the situation flow and think for us
An accumulation of the decisions made during ordinary moments can lead to better or worse positioning to handle future problems. That is why it is so important to act right in non-important times
If you can position yourself well, then you are more likely to be able to think clearly. If you position yourself badly, you will constrained and forced to make a certain decision. The best never fall into this scenario
Clear thinking leads to proper positioning, which allows you to control situations and not have the situations control you
Enemies of Clear Thinking
Thinking Badly - Or Not At All?
Often times, we are not even aware that we need to be thinking in a particular situation, which enables impulses to act for us
If a stimulus is presented to us, we can either pause and think or we cede to our default behaviour. The problem is that our default behaviour is often making the situation worse and we are unaware we are defaulting
It’s important that we train ourselves to identify when we need to create space for decision making
If we keep defaulting, we spend more of our energy fixing our mistakes than working towards our goal. That is wasted time and effort
We have a lot of animal behaviours that we default to that used to work but now often makes our lives more difficult. These behaviours include:
Defending territory: If someone criticizes us, we often shut down and defend
We organize hierarchically: We go back to status to signal that we are right and they are wrong. Eg. when kids ask why they shouldn’t do something, adults often respond “Because I said so”
Self-preserving: We are selfish and may unknowingly hurt others for our own self-preservation
There are 4 behavioural defaults that are the most common and dangerous
Emotion default: We tend to respond to feelings rather than reason or facts
Ego default: We tend to respond to anything that threatens our self-worth or our place in the group hierarchy
Social default: We tend to conform to the norms of our larger social group
Inertia default: We resist change and prefer things that are familiar
The best thinkers have these same defaults but are able to control them
The Emotion Default
Responding emotionally to something often precludes us from thinking whether the opportunity is apt for thinking clearly; we charge ahead and then regret our actions
Emotional thinking can multiply all of our progress by zero
There are certain situations which affect our body that will more likely make us default emotionally, like hunger and poor sleep. Be on guard during these situations
The Ego Default
The ego can turn even the smallest amount of information into reckless confidence, which blinds us to risk
This is a big massage for the ego, since people think highly of people with high conviction
If someone treads on our ego, we often make thoughtless decisions that we regret later
Benedict Arnold betrayed the US during the Revolutionary War because of his bruised ego from younger officers being promoted ahead of him and the scandals surrounding his finances and corruption
The ego wants us to feel right over being right. We think others who disagree with us are naturally wrong and we are right
The Social Default
This default coaxes us to fall in line with everyone else and makes us perform signalling to show to others that you are similar to them
The big lie from the social default is that if you do the same thing as everyone else, you will achieve the same level of success. That is blatantly false
The only way you can succeed if you are doing undifferentiated things is to work harder than everyone else
If you differentiate, you suffer from social outcaste behaviour and ridicule, but you change the entire game
If you do what everyone else does, you will get the same rewards as everyone else. However, divergence is only successful if it is right
The Inertia Default
This default pushes us to maintain the status quo
Leonard Mlodinow: “Once our minds are set in a direction, they tend to continue in that direction unless acted upon by an external force”
Why do we stick with the status quo?
It is easy
If we change and something bad happens, we perceive it a lot worse than if something good were to happen. We are scared of the risks
We must be wary of the “zone of average”. This is when things are too good to leave but also too bad to stay. We tend to stay with the status quo
This is often why people continue to live in bad situations even though there is evidence to suggest that they are wrong
Default to Clarity
We cannot remove these defaults, but we can manage them more effectively
To do this, we need to create an environment where good actions are encouraged and bad defaults are not
Building Strength
The best way to overcome our inner defaults is to ritualize the way we approach situations
Using our inertia default, we can use these rituals to respond consistently. If these rituals encourage strength, then we are golden
4 key strengths: self-accountability, self-knowledge, self-control and self-confidence
Self-Accountability
There is always an action you can control to make you stronger and better for tomorrow
If you keep dodging responsibility, you run on autopilot and are subject to externalities far more than those who can take responsibility for their own actions
No one cares about your excuses. Excuses are just a way to make you feel better and to avoid taking responsibility
Even if an externality happens that you didn’t cause, the consequences are still yours. Learn to deal with them and not complain about the things you cannot control
In poker, you have to learn how to play the hand that you were dealt
Tne more you complain about the status quo, the less energy you have in dealing and working with it
Whenever you are dealt with a situation, ask yourself: “Is the action I am about to take going to make my future better or worse?”
Making yourself the victim of everything and telling yourself that you are helpless is often extremely counterproductive
Many of your friends and family will also let it slide when you have the victim mentality complex, accelerating your degeneracy into the blame game
Learn to accept situations and act on the reality of the ground, rather than reacting and complaining
Self-Knowledge
This is about knowing your strengths, weaknesses and cognitive blind spots
Knowing when you are operating outside your area of competency is crucial in avoiding mistakes and defaulting
Self-Control
You can either be a bob in the ocean of emotions and let emotions steer you, or you can have the self-control to refuse emotions from changing your direction
A large part of success is continuing on to do what needs to be done despite how you are feeling, which requires a large degree of self-control
Self-Confidence
Self-confidence is crucial in perseverance after negative feedback
Overconfidence is when you have self-confidence but refuse to acknowledge your weaknesses. Self-confident people are well-aware of their weaknesses but continue to forge their path
The best way to get rid of your doubts is to remind yourself of all the times you have conquered your fears in your past
Being able to look past difficulties and forge ahead is one of the beauties of life
It also takes confidence to recognize when you are wrong and quickly adapt
Self-confidence also requires the ability to put your ego aside and forget about being right all the time. Sometimes others have better ideas and solutions; you should focus on what is best for everyone and support their ideas and solutions rather than trying to own everything that is right
Eg: A woman was in the running for the CEO spot and was facing a business problem. Her rival had a much simpler solution than hers. It took her some convincing to set aside her complex solution and instead support her rivals. Because of this, the board of the company appointed her as CEO as she demonstrated that she can act without ego
Setting the Standards
The first step is to take a hard look at your environment and determine if the people you hang out with have the strengths that you desire
Paraphrased quote from Epictetus: If you enter into relationships with people, you will inevitably become like them. A dead coal will make a neighboring live coal die or it will reignite itself. Remember that when you cajole with grimy people, you can’t help but get dirty yourself
Hang around people with high standards for themselves and you will mold yourself into a better person
High standards create exceptional people
Kissinger story: A staffer once gave a bad memo to Kissinger. Without reading it, he asked the staffer if it was their best work. The staffer said no and rewrote it. Happened again and again until the staffer finally said it was their best work. Finally, Kissinger actually opened the memo
The best way to become exceptional is to level up your standards. To raise the bar, either seek a master at the craft who has really high standards or hang out with people with higher standards
Exemplars and Practice
To build strength by raising your bar you need to:
Find exemplars: these are people that you admire, work with or even people from the past that can make you better in particular aspects or traits
Practice imitating them by creating space in the moment, thinking how they would respond, and then acting accordingly
Most people don’t actually put in the effort to curate who they hang out with. You don’t need to remove the existing circle, but you should add in exemplars into the mix
Choosing the right exemplars to follow can help you transcend the standards set by your circle
Once you have found a collection of exemplars, place them on a personal board of directors
They can review your actions and decisions and help you make smarter actions
The exemplars that make up your board are not static. Swap them out based on the situation
How do you know how these exemplars would think or act about your situation? Consume as much content and spend as much time with them to understand their mental models
Note that exemplars on your board may have personal failings, but don’t throw out the entire apple because of a small bruise
Also note that you are not in competition with the exemplars. You are in competition with your past self. Victory is becoming better than the person you were yesterday
By collecting and observing how your exemplars have reacted in certain situations, you build a database of good behaviours that you can copy if you are in a similar situation
Remember that you may be a role model for others, so make sure you act with the same exacting standards as the exemplars that you admire
Practice taking decisions and putting in front of your board of directors and thinking how they would respond in these situations. Do this over and over again until their mechanisms become part of who you are
Managing Your Weaknesses
Knowing Your Weaknesses
Two ways of managing weaknesses are to build strength or to implement safeguards
Knowing your own weaknesses is everyone’s biggest blind spots for a few reasons:
We don’t often self-examine our weaknesses
Thinking about our weaknesses is a bruise to our ego
We have limited third-party perspective on ourselves
Whenever someone gives you criticism or comments on your weaknesses, use that as an opportunity
Protecting Yourself With Safeguards
Put in safeguards to avoid defaulting
Safeguard strategy #1: prevention
If you notice that you are in a vulnerable state, then don’t make the decision yet. Wait for a more opportune time
Alcoholics Anonymous codifies this with HALT: if you are hungry, angry, lonely or tired, fix the situation rather than reaching for a drink
Safeguard strategy #2: automatic rules
Making choices all the time is an error-prone method. Instead, have rules that you have set by yourself that you adhere to all the time
Eg: I never drink soda, I go to the gym everyday, I don’t say yes to any request on any phone call
You don’t have as much mental exhaustion making choices yet you make choices via rules that will benefit you
If people question you on why you say no to things, you have a rule that you can refer to. People tend to accept rules as a part of who you are, but they will question your choices
Safeguard strategy #3: create friction
Make it really hard to do your default behaviour so that your desired behaviour becomes your default behaviour instead
Safeguard strategy #4: Putting in guardrails
Use rules and checklists to slow yourself down and make sure you are accomplishing what you want to accomplish
Safeguard strategy #5: shift your perspective
Before you start arguing for a certain position, try to understand the other side
One of Parrish’s friends would always try to summarize the other person’s POV and ask “What did I miss” before offering any opinions of his own in the matter
How To Handle Mistakes
Even the most successful people make mistakes because there are a lot of factors that are not within our control that can blur our mental models on how things should work
Most people don’t want to hear about their mistakes due to ego and inertia defaulting and continue to live life making the same mistakes over again
People often bungle mistakes even more by hiding them. Not only do you lose the opportunity to learn from your mistake, but you lose everyone’s trust
4 steps to dealing with mistakes:
Step 1: Accept responsibilty
You are in control of your own life, so you should take responsibility for any contribution you had to a mistake, even if its not yours
Ultimately, you will need to deal with the consequences
Step 2: Reflect on the mistake
Understand the emotions and logic that led you to making this mistake
If you are still blaming externalities for the mistake, you need to go back to Step 1
Step 3: Commit to doing better
Figure out how you are going to avoid making the mistake by either building up on a strength or setting up a safeguard
Step 4: Repair
Make sure to apologize, accept responsibility for consequences and commit to doing better in the future
Decisions: Clear Thinking In Action
A decision is not a choice. A decision is when you apply thinking to choose an option that you think is best
A lot of people make choices because when presented with making a decision, they default
Note that being decisive and being good at decision-making is not correlated with the speed at which you make decisions
For larger decisions, it is best to slow down and think, even though it may look like inaction to an outsider
For smaller decisions with low stake, just choose one for speed. No need to waste time
If you cannot control your defaults, the following decision making techniques are not going to help much
Define The Problem
The decider needs to define the problem, what do we want to achieve and what are the obstacles preventing us from doing so
Too many times, people come together, have a brief inkling of a problem, and immediately go about trying to solve it
The first possible definition of a problem is usually not the full definition of a problem. We then react without reasoning
We have been trained from school that solving problems is rewarded more than defining the right problem, so the social default tends to skip the problem definition stage
This leads to organizations solving symptoms, not problems. The problem will keep occurring over and over again
Two important principles to follow when defining the problem
Definition principle: you are responsible for defining the problem; do the work to make sure you truly understand what you need to solve
Root cause principle: go to the deepest roots to understand what would need to be true for the problem to never have existed in the first place
Ex: Downtown Dog Rescue in LA did a root cause analysis on how to reduce the number of dogs in their shelter
They found that a large portion of dogs are coming from owner surrenders due to insufficient resources or training on how to take care of a pet
Now, when an owner tries to surrender their pet, they try to help the owner and give them resources
A safeguard to prevent a hurried problem definition stage: keep the solution stage and problem stage separate in meetings
During the problem meeting, ask the audience: “What do you know about the problem that no one else in the room knows about”
With a good problem meeting, solutions become obvious to everyone
Write down your problem definition
Another safe guard for good problem definition: ask if your solution will stand the test of time
If the problem will re-appear with your solution, then you haven’t solved the right problem
Sometimes it is ok to solve for short-term symptoms to create space to solve the actual root problem. But remember that this takes away time and energy to solve the actual problem
Explore Possible Solutions
To find different solutions, you need to imagine different possible futures while still confronting the present reality
With each possible solution, do a premortem to think about what could possibly go wrong and prepare for that outcome
This is an example of thinking about second-order consequences. We often choose solutions that will cause bigger second-order consequences because we didn’t think about it thoroughly enough
By doing a premortem and thinking through “then what” for each solution, you discover more pieces of information that you need to gather
Safeguarding solution exploration:
Try to have at least 3 possible solutions. Binary solutions are usually not well thought out
If you can’t think of 3 possible solutions, think about what you would do if one of the options did not exist
If you can’t think of 3 solutions, think about combining the two binary solutions
When making decisions, think about what you are foregoing if you choose one option (opportunity costs)
When looking at opportunity costs, think about what the cost is in comparison to, how does the opportunity cost change if you went ahead with an option, and what are you losing
Can also put an actual monetary cost on opportunity costs to help you evaluate
Evaluate The Options
The first step is to figure out your criteria. Your criteria should have clarity, only support options that advance your goal and is decisive (i.e. ties should not exist)
If you truly understand the problem, creating your criteria will be very easy
Even if you have a lot of variables in your criteria, know what is most important to you. Do not lose sight of the forest when you are in the trees
To figure this out, try to stack rank your criteria to see what comes out on the top
Evaluating options against your criteria requires you to know what information to look for and to make sure it is accurate
A lot of information is not very relevant to your decision. Know exactly what you are looking for in the data for your decision before you start looking
Make sure to look for high-fidelity information that is as close to the source as possible. If you look for abstractions and summaries of information, you are relying on someone else (who may not have the same goal as you) to convey the right information to you. You can get high-fidelity information by:
Experimentation: just try out an option safely and in a small scale to get early signals
Evaluate the intentions of your sources: if you need to rely on others to get information, understand that they all have different incentives and will interpret the high-fidelity info in a different way. Withhold judgement and be curious in their perspectives to understand their angle
Ask people how they make decisions: when you learn what principles other people are using to interpret the high-fidelity info, you have a better understanding of their perspectives
Look for high-expertise advice from experts. They have been in your shoes for a while and know what to look for
To make sure that experts actually respond to you because their time is busy, make sure to:
Show that you have skin in the game: demonstrate the amount of effort and time you have spent on the problem
Be precise on what you need from the expert
Show respect for their time and energy
Ask how they reason so that you can prime your own decision making models
Follow up after the request to share how their advice helped
It is much easier to develop a personal relationship with experts before you ask for advice, but you don’t know which experts you will need help from. Make sure you cast a wide net socially
Know who are experts and who are imitators. Imitators only have a shallow knowledge of the field and like to look good rather than being good
Do It!
Now that you have an option to move forward with, it is time to execute on it. However, people often lose the resolve to act because they are scared of the consequences and being wrong
If a decision is highly consequential and irreversible, make sure to be slow and methodical
Make your decision as late as possible because you should gather as much information as possible
Be highly wary of analysis paralysis, where you are stuck gathering information. If you run into a situation where you no longer are gathering useful information, lost an opportunity or there is irrefutable information on what to do next, stop looking for data
Usually, more data is not going to make you more accurate, but it will make you more confident
If a decision is inconsequential and highly reversible, be fast as possible. No need to waste time
Margin Of Safety
Our solutions don’t have to be perfect; there can be sizeable risks to our decisions
It is best to think about how the decision can fail before you start and prepare counter-measures for them. It is much easer to prevent defaulting when mistakes happen if you can predict the mistakes when you are in a calm state
Don’t just rely on history to figure out the worst case scenarios. Really use your imagination. Remember that when the worst case happened previously, it was surprising to others
Tip: build a margin of safety that can absorb double the worst-case scenario
If there are big consequences to your decisions, then create a large margin of safety. Otherwise, you can reduce or skip it if it is inconsequential
You can also experiment with multiple options at the same time to assess which option is more risky and then go all-in on your chosen option
Preserving optionality might make you look stupid for missing out on things, but it helps you become more correct
When you make a decision, live with it for a day or 2 before announcing it
This gives you time to adjust implementation based on new information
You can also see how your intuition feels after a few days of living with it
Once you announce it, the decision may be irreversible
Create fail-safes to ensure that your decision is executed to plan
Set up trip wires that signal what you will do when a specific set of conditions arise: for example, if a group of mountain climbers don’t reach a particular place by a particular time, they will turn back and not summit
Use commander’s intent to empower others to make decisions
Tie your own hands: prevent yourself from changing the decision execution path
Learn From Your Decisions
Great decision-makers have mastered the ability to learn from their mistakes and successes to repeat their successes and avoid their mistakes
When evaluating your decisions, look at the decision making process rather than the outcome of the decision
The vagaries of life may get in the way of the outcome
You can’t judge your decision quality by the results
Make your decision process as transparent as possible
Write down what you are thinking when you are making the decision process while you are making the decision. Otherwise, the ego default will obscure your true decision-making process later
Wanting What Matters
There is a difference between making effective decisions and good decisions. Good decisions get you what you want; effective decisions may or may not
The problem is that our internal defaulting mechanisms will cloud what we really want
Emotion default will constantly switch your goals
Inertia default will make you stick with the goals of your past, even though it may not be best for you
Social default will make you want the things others want (mimesis)
Ego default will make us want things to make ourselves look better than others
Dickens’ Hidden Lesson
Ebenezer Scrooge is a textbook case study on the consequences of pursuing things according to society’s scoreboard and not paying attention to what truly makes someone happy
Wisdom not only requires making effective decisions, but being able to know what you want irrespective of society
The Happiness Experts
Talking to elders is quite revealing of what makes someone truly happy: relationships, lack of worry and savoring the every-day experience
One key lesson repeated over and over again is that happiness is a choice, not a condition. You can choose to be happy in spite of everything that is happening to you
Memento Mori
Think about your death and what you would look back on in your life
In the face of death, everything else falls away to reveal what is truly important
Jeff Bezos used this mindset to figure out what regrets he would have if he were to die soon and then he would act to minimize those regrets
Use this technique to know what you truly want and act accordingly